IT之家 9 月 30 日消息，TrendForce（集邦）今日发布存储器市面 2026Q4 走势预测：一般 DRAM 合约价将环比上涨 10~15%，计入 HBM 后的总体 DRAM 合约价上涨 15~20%；NAND 闪存总体合约价也将环比上涨 15~20%。
从总体上来看，DRAM 上游原厂将持续把先进制程产能投入高表现服务器机型，总体维持供应不足格局，但合约价涨势放缓；NAND 市面则展现 AI 加速、消费性需要低但仍连带涨价的双轨走势。
机构认为，PC DRAM 在 2027 年分得的产能恐将进一步下滑；服务器 DRAM 供不应求态势仍将持续；移动 DRAM、消费类 DRAM 虽涨势不变但涨幅将有所收敛。
另一维度，客户端 SSD 的原厂报价态度转趋弹性，涨幅受到抑制；企业级 SSD 总体涨幅将在 2026Q4 扩大；eMMC / UFS 等嵌入式闪存新增采购量相当有限；下游模组企业对 NAND 闪存晶圆的采购也渐趋保守。
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Thanks to IT之家 netizen SNOS雪诺 for the news tip!
IT之家 news on September 30: TrendForce today released its Q4 2026 memory market trend forecast: general DRAM contract prices will rise 10-15% quarter-over-quarter, and overall DRAM contract prices including HBM will rise 15-20%; overall NAND flash contract prices will also rise 15-20% quarter-over-quarter.
Overall, upstream DRAM manufacturers will continue to allocate advanced process capacity to high-performance server models, maintaining an overall supply shortage, but contract price growth is slowing; the NAND market shows a dual-track trend of AI acceleration and low consumer demand, yet prices are still rising in tandem.
The institution believes that PC DRAM's allocated capacity may further decline in 2027; the supply shortage of server DRAM will continue; although mobile DRAM and consumer DRAM maintain their upward trend, the magnitude of increase will moderate.
On another dimension, manufacturers' pricing stance for client SSDs has become more flexible, with price increases curbed; overall enterprise SSD price increases will expand in 2026Q4; new purchase volumes for embedded flash memory such as eMMC/UFS are quite limited; downstream module manufacturers are also gradually becoming conservative in their procurement of NAND flash wafers.
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